In her latest post, my colleague, Liz Economy, asks:  What will Vice President Biden find in China? I thought I’d try out my own response to this very direct question:
1. Biden will find a China whose rise depends on economic growth but whose growth model is no longer sustainable.
Bluntly put, China’s leaders know that their capital-intensive, export-oriented approach is delivering diminishing returns and threatens to become a major political vulnerability for the government. The global economic crisis provided clear evidence that China’s export-driven economy is vulnerable to dips in demand in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, its dependence on investment has introduced distortions and imbalances into the Chinese economy.
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Source: Council on Foreign Relations author - Evan A. Feigenbaum
My Comments:
I think the Chinese question is very much worthy of critical discussion. Â I think, however, that the interconnectedness of global economics make China very much susceptible to all the effects faced by large economies such as Germany, Japan and the U.S. Â Yes, the Chinese are moving quickly on many fronts, but to think that they will at some future date become the pre-eminent singular world power is somewhat foolish; besides, what does pre-eminence really means in such a connected world anyway. Â